Data Set Citation:
When using this data, please cite the data package:
NCEAS 12164: Walsh: Efficient wildlife disease control: From social network self-organization to optimal vaccination , National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis , and Ryan S. 2012.
Recovery simulations for infectious diseases in African Great Apes
nceas.978.6 (https://knb.ecoinformatics.org:443/knb/metacat/nceas.978.6/nceas)
General Information:
Title:Recovery simulations for infectious diseases in African Great Apes
Identifier:nceas.978
Abstract:
Supplemental material for Ryan SJ, Walsh PD (2011) Consequences of Non-Intervention for Infectious Disease in African Great Apes. PLoS ONE 6(12): e29030. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0029030
Keywords:None:
  • Ebola
  • Model simulations
  • African Great Apes
  • Simian immunodeficiency virus
  • Gorilla
  • Infectious diseases
  • Outbreaks
  • Recovery time
  • Vaccination
Publication Date:2012-01-23
Data Table, Image, and Other Data Details:
Metadata download: Ecological Metadata Language (EML) File
Data Table:Bwindi gorilla population simulation.csv ( View Metadata | Download File download)
Data Table:Disease outbreak.csv ( View Metadata | Download File download)
Data Table:Vaccinations for wile ape populations.csv ( View Metadata | Download File download)
Data Table:Vaccination coverage.csv ( View Metadata | Download File download)

Involved Parties

Data Set Creators:
Organization:NCEAS 12164: Walsh: Efficient wildlife disease control: From social network self-organization to optimal vaccination
Organization:National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
Individual: Sadie Ryan
Organization:SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Address:
Syracuse, New York USA
Email Address:
sjryan@esf.edu
Data Set Contacts:
Individual: Sadie Ryan
Organization:SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Address:
Syracuse, New York USA
Email Address:
sjryan@esf.edu
Associated Parties:
Individual: Sadie Ryan
Individual: Peter Walsh
Metadata Providers:
Individual: Xueying Han

Data Set Characteristics

Geographic Region:
Geographic Description:Virunga Mountains of Rwanda
Bounding Coordinates:
West:  29.5481  degrees
East:  29.5481  degrees
North:  -1.4292  degrees
South:  -1.4292  degrees
Time Period:
Begin:
1966
End:
2011
Taxonomic Range:
Classification:
Rank Name:Species
Rank Value:Gorilla beringei beringei

Sampling, Processing and Quality Control Methods

Step by Step Procedures
Step 1:  
Description:

Methods

Mortality rates typical of disease outbreaks in

wild apes were characterized from data compiled from sixteen previously published outbreaks, wherein community size, number infected and the mortality rate were explicitly reported. We used a demographic modeling exercise to demonstrate the resilience of populations to disease outbreaks. To describe population growth in gorillas we used a discrete,

logistic model:

N(t+1)=N(t)+R*N(t)*(K-N(t)/K)

We parameterized the model using an estimated demographic rate (R) for gorillas in the Virunga Mountains of Rwanda. To be conservative, we used highly optimistic estimates which tended to overestimate gorilla reproductive potential. They yielded a Leslie matrix estimate for the annual rate of increase of R= 3.7% (Walsh and Caillaud, unpublished). The estimated population size was 320

gorillas, and the carrying capacity estimate (K) was 300 to 500, so we used a midpoint of K = 400.

We considered a series of five scenarios in which proportional mortality rate, a, corresponded to the mortality rate observed in a real outbreak. In each scenario, we seeded the logistic growth model with an initial, post-outbreak population size of

N(0)=N-a*N

then iterated the logistic model in annual times steps until gorilla population size reached the initial population size, N, as a measure

of recovery time. To examine the resilience of gorillas to disease we considered five disease mortality scenarios and the outputs of these simulations are reported here.

We examined human vaccination rates and reported cases (where available) for five exemplar great ape range countries using the UNICEF/WHO 2009 global immunization summary and the WHO 2009 WHS (World Health Statistics), for seven diseases known to be communicable to great apes. We also included data from the United Kingdom, a leading source country for ape tourists. We conducted a literature review of human vaccines for pathogens that were either already known to infect wild apes or presented a high risk of infection (e.g. respiratory pathogens likely to be carried by tourists). For each pathogen we scored whether at least one vaccine was licensed (L) or under development; in the advanced stage of development (A) if the most advanced vaccine was in human clinical trials; or in the early stage of development (E), if the most advanced vaccine was not yet in human clinical trials but had protected captive non-human primates from pathogen challenge. We also identified mode of transmission, the identity of the reservoir host, and the likely duration of vaccineinduced immunity.

Data Set Usage Rights

no restrictions
Access Control:
Auth System:knb
Order:denyFirst
Metadata download: Ecological Metadata Language (EML) File