Data Set Citation:
When using this data, please cite the data package:
NCEAS 2220: Tilman: Ecological Forecasting , National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis , and De'Antonia C. 2008.
Ecological Forcasting Trade Data
nceas.940.1 (
General Information:
Title:Ecological Forcasting Trade Data
This data was collected for the work described in the Publication: Levine, Jonathan M.; D'Antonio, Carla 2003. Forecasting biological invasions with increasing international trade. Conservation Biology. Vol: 17(1). Pages 322-326. Historical data was used to parameterize species-accumulation models relating international trade to the establishment rates of nonindigenous species in the United States over the past century. Then they coupled the relationships with published trade forecasts to predict future invasion rates for insects, plant pathogens, and mollusks.
  • Exotic species
  • Nonindigenous species
Publication Date:2008-07-23
Data Table, Image, and Other Data Details:
Metadata download: Ecological Metadata Language (EML) File
Other Data:Trade Data for NCEAS.xls ( View Metadata | Download File download)

Involved Parties

Data Set Creators:
Organization:NCEAS 2220: Tilman: Ecological Forecasting
Organization:National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
Individual: Carla De'Antonia
Email Address:
Data Set Contacts:
Individual: Carla De'Antonia
Email Address:
Associated Parties:
Individual: Carla De'Antonia
Individual: Johnathan Levine
Metadata Providers:
Individual: Callie Bowdish

Data Set Characteristics

Geographic Region:
Geographic Description:United States
Bounding Coordinates:
West:  -126.0000   degrees
East:  -73.0000   degrees
North:  53.0000   degrees
South:  23.0000   degrees
Time Period:

Sampling, Processing and Quality Control Methods

Step by Step Procedures
Step 1:  

Data collection

We obtained historical numbers of established exotic insects from Sailer (1983) and data for plant pathogens and mollusks from the Office of Technology Assessment (1993). For trade data, we used U.S. Department of Commerce statistics of merchandise imports from 1800 onwards, converted to 1999 U.S. dollars. We then calculated cumulative imports to 1920, 1930, 1940, . . . 1990. Although other taxonomic groups were available for study (e.g., mammals), we restricted our analysis to those continuing to enter the United States as accidental introductions with trade.

This was one of the publications used: Sailer, R. I. 1983. History of insect introductions. Pages 15–38 in C. W. Wilson and C. L. Graham, editors. Exotic plant pests and North America agriculture. Academic Press, New York.

Data Set Usage Rights

Obtain permission from data set owner(s)
Access Control:
Auth System:knb
Metadata download: Ecological Metadata Language (EML) File